Mobile Broadband Connections to Dominate Globe – GSMA

The world will hold more than 5 billion mobile subscribers by mid-year 2017 -- and mobile broadband will account for almost two-thirds of those connections by 2020, finds a report released this week by GSMA,

By 2020, mobile subscriber growth will increase to 5.7 billion, up from 4.8 billion in 2016, says the GSM Association (GSMA) in the Mobile Economy 2017 report and corresponding infographic. By the end of the decade, mobile broadband connections will increase to 73% of total connections, versus 55% of total in 2016.

In addition to addressing the global shift to mobile broadband networks, the study also examined the social and economic impact of the mobile industry, and predictions about the emergence of 5G networks. Over the next few years, the bulk of mobile subscriber growth is expected to shift heavily to Asia-Pacific, which is forecast to account for two-thirds of new global mobile subscribers, and 310 million new subscribers in India alone, by 2020.

"Mobile is a global platform that today supports two-thirds of the world's population, delivering the connectivity and infrastructure that is powering new digital economies and addressing socioeconomic challenges," said Mats Granryd, director general of the GSMA, in a press release. "Our latest Mobile Economy report reveals how the near ubiquity of smartphones and high-speed connectivity is enabling innovation in areas such as artificial intelligence and driving the digital transformation. Mobile operators have invested over a trillion dollars in their networks since 2010 and will invest a further $700 billion over the remainder of the decade as we enter the 5G era."

In 2016, 4G coverage already reached nearly 60% of the global population, and the GSMA study predicts that the first 5G networks will launch in 2019, with coverage available to one-third of the world's population by 2025. The number of 5G connections will reach 1.1 billion in 2025, the study finds.

There will be an overall modest mobile revenue growth leading into 2020, but developing markets, plus India and China showed significant growth in 2015 and 2016, says GSMA.

"Total mobile revenues reached $1.05 trillion in 2016, up 2.2% on 2015, marking the second consecutive year of rising revenue growth," but barriers like increasing competition and regulation, as well as slowing subscriber growth will take a toll on future revenue, finds the report.

The economic impact of mobile technologies and services is expected to rise by about $1 trillion by the end of the decade, from contributing to 4.4% of global GDP in 2016 (about $3.3 trillion of economic value), to 4.9% of global GDP in 2020 (or over $4.2 trillion). Mobile technologies supported 28.5 million jobs in 2016, and are predicted to support 30.9 million by 2020, according to the report.

Mobile technology and services are also paving the way for increased worldwide access to the Internet: Over the past five years, individuals accessing the Internet via mobile devices doubled to 3.6 billion and the GSMA expects that to increase to 4.7 billion, or 60% of the global population, by 2020.

The Mobile Economy report also addresses the rising popularity among consumers for mobile messaging platforms, opportunities to speed the develop of digital platforms via collaborative partnerships and open standards, and highlights the need to rethink historical approaches to regulations and policies for the telecom industry as the digital economy becomes increasingly global.

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• Ultra-Broadband Gets 5G Employment Boost
• FCC's Pai Promises 'Light Touch' on Regulation

— Kelsey Kusterer Ziser, Senior Editor, Light Reading